Gartner Hype Cycle

技术成熟度曲线（Gartner 炒作周期）Advanced

A five-stage curve describing how a new technology moves from hype to disillusionment to real adoption.

The hype cycle was introduced by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn in 1995, and Gartner now publishes many versions annually across different technology fields. The curve divides public expectations of a new technology into five stages: the innovation trigger, the peak of inflated expectations, the trough of disillusionment, the slope of enlightenment, and the plateau of productivity. Its point is that media buzz and real-world usability often move out of sync — hype is frequently at its highest well before large-scale deployment is anywhere close. Discussions of whether embodied AI is a bubble, or where humanoid robots currently sit, often borrow this chart. It's an empirical framework, not a quantitative prediction, and many technologies never complete the whole curve.

ExampleAccording to reports, Gartner's 2025 AI hype cycle placed generative AI as having already slid from the peak into the trough of disillusionment.

Also called: Technology Maturity Curve
Related: Embodied AI Bubble · Consensus / Non-Consensus · ChatGPT Moment for Robotics · Year One of Mass Production · Real-world Deployment
Sources: Gartner hype cycle - Wikipedia